For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[attitude]

One thing weird I have noticed about the market in the IE is that new builds are the same price if not cheaper than 20-30 year old house, the neighborhoods could be right across the street from each other. If what is holding back the market is really the limited inventory then why aren’t home builders taking advantage of this?

 

[cofooter]

Hey, did we chat yesterday?
2 bed 2 bath. 5k.............Its the new 2k!

Before everyone blows their tops, I am visiting TN in two weeks to home shop.

Interested in your findings in TN, we're also looking there.

 

[CLdrinker]

As opposed to paying ever increasing rents and waiting for the crash?

A client of mine I was talking to yesterday pays almost $5k a month in rent… for an apartment.

At some point you have to stop the bleeding if you wish to become a homeowner. And that answer to that is generally buy as soon as possible.

I guess everyone makes 200+ a year. Is everyone pay check to paycheck? My wife and I do well and are looking to get a rental by end of next year. But we are looking out of state with a 200k max budget.

How the eff are people paying for this shit.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

The numbers I come up with are based on 3% down and no write offs factored in, assuming the Zillow rates are correct as well.

We love the house we rent right now but the payment on it would be about $5500 compared to the $3000 we pay in rent.

The $4500 mortgage payment houses in Perris and Menifee I look at aren't where I want my kids to go to school at either.

However, the uncertainty of where we are going to live every 12 months is getting old.

I have no idea how people swing these costs of living.

$5000 a month for a mortgage for the next thirty years just does not make sense for me and I have 20% down. I can't even imagine how this is going to work for young families. Factor in all the hidden costs and I just can't see how a crash won't happen at some point in the near future.

People seem to be living on the ragged edge and one small hiccup and shit goes bad. What happens when you get a major repair bill? People attempt to turn it into insurance and then insurance costs go up and people can't handle that.

Yes, someone is buying, but this week (weds today) we've seen pending houses we watch falling out and going back on active. How much is the debt ceiling influencing "Investors" who might be buying up inventory? Something has got to give.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Interested in your findings in TN, we're also looking there.

We looked there, our jobs allow us to live anywhere in the U.S. as close to a major airport as I'm willing to drive.

I loved the houses you can get for the money. We looked in the greater Knoxville area. The humidity might be an issue, we will likely make another trip to see how bad it is. Lots of recreational activities in that area as well. We have friends from SoCa who went to that area, they are happy as can be and their adult kids followed them.

The west side of the state is like a different world. We avoided Mephis like the plague.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

One thing weird I have noticed about the market in the IE is that new builds are the same price if not cheaper than 20-30 year old house, the neighborhoods could be right across the street from each other. If what is holding back the market is really the limited inventory then why aren’t home builders taking advantage of this?

New builds have pretty steep Mellon Roos tax that can be as high as an extra $800 a month! And some never go away!

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I have no idea how people swing these costs of living.

$5000 a month for a mortgage for the next thirty years just does not make sense for me and I have 20% down. I can't even imagine how this is going to work for young families. Factor in all the hidden costs and I just can't see how a crash won't happen at some point in the near future.

People seem to be living on the ragged edge and one small hiccup and shit goes bad. What happens when you get a major repair bill? People attempt to turn it into insurance and then insurance costs go up and people can't handle that.

Yes, someone is buying, but this week (weds today) we've seen pending houses we watch falling out and going back on active. How much is the debt ceiling influencing "Investors" who might be buying up inventory? Something has got to give.

A $5k mortgage in 20 years will seem cheap and in Corona he will have an easy quarter million conservatively in equity. To be fair in his example you would not be anywhere near a $5k monthly mortgage with 20% down.

So what has changed? We all have stories from our parents not having 2 nickles to rub together when they bought their first house.

You could pick most people situations apart that are living paycheck to paycheck with new car payments, $1k phones, taking vacations, eating out, and and on and on. I didn’t even mention the toys, hobbies and all the other stuff people blow money on.

Nothing is going to give until people can’t pay.

What is going to happen is that people will realize they are priced out of certain markets when they have to make 80 mile commutes or live in shitty (literally and figuratively) areas of California.

 

[Boatymcboatface]

If you want a decent house in big bear take your pick plenty of listings up the hill right now! Almost 300 listings just in the big bear lake area.

Just a small sample of what’s available.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I guess everyone makes 200+ a year. Is everyone pay check to paycheck? My wife and I do well and are looking to get a rental by end of next year. But we are looking out of state with a 200k max budget.

How the eff are people paying for this shit.

They don’t have expensive hobbies.

 

[cofooter]

We're looking at Pickwick lake/Tom Bigbee waterway area. We have some friends there and spent a lot of time on the water there ages ago, don't need to be near a city.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

And this would have been the best response from the get go rather than hypothetical opinions on water sources & availability

What you’re really saying is you can’t get what you want where you want for the price you want to pay

I can't get what I want where I want for the price I'm willing to pay, but I can't get what I want in about a dozen places around the Western US. I search multiple states and in Montana the whole state.

While your 200 a square foot is a reasonable build cost and just happens to be the number I use when shopping, your statement about built-in equity is suspect. If homes keep going up this might be true, but we don't know. In addition, you are well aware that finishes and Change Orders could swing that.

$200K for the lot
$500K for the build (let's say 2500 sq ft)
Plus permits, fees, landscaping, and change orders, I have to assume all-in costs to build are gotta be around $850K all said and done.

That gets you with 20% down well on your way to $5300 a month after insurance and taxes, less any HOA fees. That is pretty much the cost for a ready-built decent house of that size in most semi-developed towns in the western states. Less Metro metro areas, and almost all of California.

In 2019 you could find homes for around $150 a square foot in Montana, today the average is closer to $300. $500 is not unheard of.

Lucky for me I can wait and see what happens if I don't find a deal. I've got one I'm working on for $147 asking, but have not been able to get into it yet. There are some deals out there to be had, but you gotta dig for them.

Interested to hear if anyone ever gets what they want for the price they want. I have never had that happen with cars, houses, drugs, or anything.

 

[rivrrts429]

If you want a decent house in big bear take your pick plenty of listings up the hill right now! Almost 300 listings just in the big bear lake area.

Just a small sample of what’s available.

Can’t get insurance and the insurance you can get is astronomical.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Interested to hear if anyone ever gets what they want for the price they want. I have never had that happen with cars, houses, drugs, or anything.

If you have cash and can solve someone’s problem, stuff seems to magically happen. I haven’t be able to do that on a house yet, but have with cars, toys and trailers.

 

[Cdog]

I can't get what I want where I want for the price I'm willing to pay, but I can't get what I want in about a dozen places around the Western US. I search multiple states and in Montana the whole state.

While your 200 a square foot is a reasonable build cost and just happens to be the number I use when shopping, your statement about built-in equity is suspect. If homes keep going up this might be true, but we don't know. In addition, you are well aware that finishes and Change Orders could swing that.

$200K for the lot
$500K for the build (let's say 2500 sq ft)
Plus permits, fees, landscaping, and change orders, I have to assume all-in costs to build are gotta be around $850K all said and done.

That gets you with 20% down well on your way to $5300 a month after insurance and taxes, less any HOA fees. That is pretty much the cost for a ready-built decent house of that size in most semi-developed towns in the western states. Less Metro metro areas, and almost all of California.

In 2019 you could find homes for around $150 a square foot in Montana, today the average is closer to $300. $500 is not unheard of.

Lucky for me I can wait and see what happens if I don't find a deal. I've got one I'm working on for $147 asking, but have not been able to get into it yet. There are some deals out there to be had, but you gotta dig for them.

Interested to hear if anyone ever gets what they want for the price they want. I have never had that happen with cars, houses, drugs, or anything.

You're assuming a lot and we know how that turns out often. Either way it's a non issue as Rio Verde isn't on your list. All the best!

 

[attitude]

I can help you build a real nice home here in N Scottsdale/Rio Verde for $200 a sqft not including land. Land is 100-200k for 1-2 Acres. You'll likely have equity when you move in. I get it if it's not where you want to be but you need to have some trust in the right people and let them show you the way.

Just tire kicking, but what does $200 a sqft get you? Nice cabinets, granite counters, tile or vinyl plank floors, 2-3 car garage? Is there a way to get not so nice finishes and knock a little off the cost? Would you still need to pay for the well and utilities?

 

[Cdog]

Just tire kicking, but what does $200 a sqft get you? Nice cabinets, granite counters, tile or vinyl plank floors, 2-3 car garage? Is there a way to get not so nice finishes and knock a little off the cost? Would you still need to pay for the well and utilities?

Yes to all. Tile floors.

There’s definitely ways to reduce costs. Average sqft is approximately 3k sqft. We have RV garage options. Would love to show you around and walk you through builds in different stages. Some lots already have a well. Many variables

 

[attitude]

Yes to all. Tile floors.

There’s definitely ways to reduce costs. Average sqft is approximately 3k sqft. We have RV garage options. Would love to show you around and walk you through builds in different stages. Some lots already have a well. Many variables

I am probably too poor for what you are building however I am curious, I really need to find a place to settle down before my 1.5 and 4 year old get settled into school. I’d love to have a 3k sqft house with an RV garage but that would come in way above budget. Is the garage included into the sqft price of the build or does that sqft of the garage get added on top of the house?

 

[evantwheeler]

Just tire kicking, but what does $200 a sqft get you? Nice cabinets, granite counters, tile or vinyl plank floors, 2-3 car garage? Is there a way to get not so nice finishes and knock a little off the cost? Would you still need to pay for the well and utilities?

You're worrying about the wrong things for your first home purchase....

 

[attitude]

You're worrying about the wrong things for your first home purchase....

Lol, I was asking how nice the features were so I could see what I could knock off.

 

[El Rojo]

You're worrying about the wrong things for your first home purchase....

With the way the market is and prices are going, how you could you afford to move up?

 

[Cdog]

I am probably too poor for what you are building however I am curious, I really need to find a place to settle down before my 1.5 and 4 year old get settled into school. I’d love to have a 3k sqft house with an RV garage but that would come in way above budget. Is the garage included into the sqft price of the build or does that sqft of the garage get added on top of the house?

Garage sqft is cheaper than the home sqft. Also ways to cut cost by sticking to a floor plan that we have built many times before. A 4 bed 3 bath 3k sqft +RV garage model. Other way to cut cost is on the lot. Just depends what we find. But 100k lot is possible in Ri0 Verde. Welcome to call me to discuss your budget and what’s possible. Corey - 480-720-7649

 

[Havasu blue label]

I guess everyone makes 200+ a year. Is everyone pay check to paycheck? My wife and I do well and are looking to get a rental by end of next year. But we are looking out of state with a 200k max budget.

How the eff are people paying for this shit.

I am probably too poor for what you are building however I am curious, I really need to find a place to settle down before my 1.5 and 4 year old get settled into school. I’d love to have a 3k sqft house with an RV garage but that would come in way above budget. Is the garage included into the sqft price of the build or does that sqft of the garage get added on top of the house?

Look into buying a duplex rent one and live in the other it will be a great start .

 

[Gonefishin5555]

I'd be curious to hear the timeline and prices paid from anyone who has done a custom building in the last 3 years. So you spitball your project and come up with land and building cost and also soft costs. What are your original numbers vs the actual numbers. I know in Sunridge in BHC people buy land thinking they will build and they don't get very far and they give up and sell the lot. Someone sold a lot for 36.5k not long ago on my street. Basically says to me its not worth building on. The lot previously sold in 2004 for 80K. So 40k lot and 300k building cost should get you a 400-450K home I guess after sales commission its not worth the risk and time involved I guess you might also have construction loan interest which could add a nice chunk to the cost. The other hidden cost is finishes such as landscaping and even furnishings. People like to buy ridiculously priced BBQs as an example. My only conclusion is shit is expensive. I talked to client of mine a couple weeks ago with a lot in the back of Laughlin Ranch I am going to find out what kind of build cost he is getting quoted he was just starting the process. My guess is he gives up by the end of summer. He has owned the lot for several years and is now making a push to work remote

 

[cofooter]

Look into buying a duplex rent one and live in the other it will be a great start .

Or a foreclosure if you are handy? Great way to build equity.........

 

[attitude]

Or a foreclosure if you are handy? Great way to build equity.........

Nothing against forclosures, I helped my mom and step dad gut and redo the house they live in now from the 08 crash.

I have seen a couple pop up but they have been standard market price, I guess people haven’t resorted to destroying them before they move out yet.

 

[evantwheeler]

With the way the market is and prices are going, how you could you afford to move up?

I'm not exactly sure what that means. Are you saying just buy something you can't afford now, with the hopes you can afford it in the future?

 

[Todd Mohr]

Richmond American has a 2500 sq/ft model with a RV garage at several locations in the Phoenix area. I think you can still get one in the 500's. 5% down, they pay all closing costs.

 

[CLdrinker]

They don’t have expensive hobbies.

Like eating and paying utilities

 

[angiebaby]

Look into buying a duplex rent one and live in the other it will be a great start .

Our niece and nephew did that in Spokane about 4-5 years ago.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Like eating and paying utilities

All Californians will be eating bugs in the dark soon anyway. Might as well get a head start

 

[Boatymcboatface]

Can’t get insurance and the insurance you can get is astronomical.

Can’t get insurance and the insurance you can get is astronomical.

Or the SRT market isn’t as strong as everyone thought? If insurance was the only reason I be surprised but yes I know what it cost family has a couple houses in areas with astronomical fire insurance cost.

 

[attitude]

Richmond American has a 2500 sq/ft model with a RV garage at several locations in the Phoenix area. I think you can still get one in the 500's. 5% down, they pay all closing costs.

They don’t show any homes in AZ on their website but they do show a lot in CA. Even some 3-4 bedrooms in the high 400s with 5.99% financing, hmmm.

 

[Cdog]

They don’t show any homes in AZ on their website but they do show a lot in CA. Even some 3-4 bedrooms in the high 400s with 5.99% financing, hmmm.

I’ve shown the models in surprise area before. Nice homes. They have a lot of strings attached to the deals. The only permitted ready to build lots have lot premiums and those have a 6-12 month lead time. Everything else is way out on build time. No way you’re getting otd for 500k

 

[Todd Mohr]

They have 30 plus developments in Az, a new build is the cheapest way to get into home right now.

 

[Todd Mohr]

When I bought from R/A in 2020, the strings were easy to deal with, use their lender and home owners insurance. I got 11k in closing cost credits, covered everything including a .25% rate buy down. Make sure you use your own realtor to help navigate the deal. In 2020 every pre existing home was a bidding war and you had to pay closing costs plus your down payment.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I'd be curious to hear the timeline and prices paid from anyone who has done a custom building in the last 3 years. So you spitball your project and come up with land and building cost and also soft costs. What are your original numbers vs the actual numbers. I know in Sunridge in BHC people buy land thinking they will build and they don't get very far and they give up and sell the lot. Someone sold a lot for 36.5k not long ago on my street. Basically says to me its not worth building on. The lot previously sold in 2004 for 80K. So 40k lot and 300k building cost should get you a 400-450K home I guess after sales commission its not worth the risk and time involved I guess you might also have construction loan interest which could add a nice chunk to the cost. The other hidden cost is finishes such as landscaping and even furnishings. People like to buy ridiculously priced BBQs as an example. My only conclusion is shit is expensive. I talked to client of mine a couple weeks ago with a lot in the back of Laughlin Ranch I am going to find out what kind of build cost he is getting quoted he was just starting the process. My guess is he gives up by the end of summer. He has owned the lot for several years and is now making a push to work remote

My brother has a 4303 sq ft on an acre in CDA Idaho he just finished building Listed at $442 a square foot. asking price is $1.9M It is a little steeper because it is Multi-Generational and he has the extra cost of a second kitchen and some slight increases for ADA accessibility. My personal opinion is he is priced too high and should drop to $1.5M, he is gonna wait it out and has a plan. Maybe a teenage drug house who knows?

I know roughly what it cost him to build it, I won't post it here, but the $200 number that @Cdog is suggesting is not out of the question. I remember when you could build a modest home for $100 a square or even less for a starter home.

Here is the problem with just thinking about the build price per sq.

That price did not include land, fees permits, landscape, septic system, or grading. He did not yet add glass enclosures to the showers, rain gutters, or any landscape. He has flooring throughout, no carpet, just laminate. No driveway hardscape, just gravel. Not even a garage approach.

It took him twice as long as he thought to build. He bought the property in Jan 2021. He was stuck in plan check forever and that is where it unraveled as far as timing. he fought with the planning department on his Mini Split calculations and ultimately had to add another unit. His sub-contractors all missed start dates, none of them finished on time and his timeline slowly eroded. He had to pre-buy all cabinets, doors, fixtures, and appliances due to supply chain challenges and store them, which he is not including in the costs he shares with me. His lumber bid got thrown out the window and costs over twice the bid due to poor timing.

He built this with all his own cash and multiple credit lines, he does not include the cost of capital in the costs he shares with me, however, he does not hide that his claimed costs to build are not accurate, he just does not want to really know at this point because he is so far over budget.

This project has been difficult for him and his wife and has been all they do since they closed escrow on the property. No vacation, no travel, no hobby, no nothing, just build this spec house. He even sold all his toys to help fund this.

My brother is not an amateur builder or project manager. He is an electrician by trade, who ran large commercial jobs before he graduated to work as a project manager for one of the world's largest publically traded construction companies. Currently working on a strategic petroleum project.

He is the polar opposite of me, he has brass balls, loves to gamble, and often wins. He is obsessed with making money. This project has tested him in ways I can't express. I don't suspect he will be so quick to try this again, I think he will go back to duplex renovations and renting to college kids whose parents co-sign on the lease.

When I was a C36 in SoCa we built a lot of custom shit in North SD, South OC, and SW Riv Co. I watched a lot of couples meltdown, divorce, and give up on custom homes they tried to do Owner Builder on. My wife has always wanted me to build her a custom home. It scares the crap out of me. I've stuck to extreme remodels as a result. At least if I run out of money you can still live in the house.

 

[Havasu blue label]

Or a foreclosure if you are handy? Great way to build equity.........

Our niece and nephew did that in Spokane about 4-5 years ago.

That was my first property

 

[77charger]

When I bought from R/A in 2020, the strings were easy to deal with, use their lender and home owners insurance. I got 11k in closing cost credits, covered everything including a .25% rate buy down. Make sure you use your own realtor to help navigate the deal. In 2020 every pre existing home was a bidding war and you had to pay closing costs plus your down payment.

We bought a used home in Peoria may 2020 we looked around west valley and any home in high 200s were multiple bids and lot of buyer traffic. We decided to raise budget and found one at 309 and offered 305.

Ended up with more home and better neighborhood vs what everyone else were going crazy for.my brother In law bought in surprise 1 acre lot and I think he was looking in summer 2021 by then he got out bidded on some homes but ended up going with new build rv garage near 163/grand for 575.

 

[Done-it-again]

I can help you build a real nice home here in N Scottsdale/Rio Verde for $200 a sqft not including land. Land is 100-200k for 1-2 Acres. You'll likely have equity when you move in. I get it if it's not where you want to be but you need to have some trust in the right people and let them show you the way.

$200 sq ft? Has to be built with “basic” builder grade materials. I just don’t see thats even possible in todays pricing.

I was quoted $335-345 on 3444 sf home, 996 sf 3 car garage truck deep, 461 sf covered patio, 100 sf front porch. With no land in November 22.

Pricing may have come down some but

 

[Sportin' Wood]

 

[hallett21]

$200 sq ft? Has to be built with “basic” builder grade materials. I just don’t see thats even possible in todays pricing.

I was quoted $335-345 on 3444 sf home, 996 sf 3 car garage truck deep, 461 sf covered patio, 100 sf front porch. With no land in November 22.

Pricing may have come down some but

I don’t know how you can build for under $200 at profit.

But if it’s happening I would tell someone to jump on it. I can barely keep costs under $100 a ft on my own projects lol.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I don’t know how you can build for under $200 at profit.

But if it’s happening I would tell someone to jump on it. I can barely keep costs under $100 a ft on my own projects lol.

RDP - Hallett needs to build a boat for cost at $2500 a foot for entry level boaters.

Also RDP - building a entry level house can’t be done for $200 per square foot.. I need to make a profit



This place delivers.

 

[attitude]

They have 30 plus developments in Az, a new build is the cheapest way to get into home right now.

I found them, I think I’m in love with this house.

Deacon at The Preserve at Tuscano | Richmond American Homes

Find new homes in Phoenix, Arizona with plenty of options for personalization.

www.richmondamerican.com

 

[530RL]

I don’t know how you can build for under $200 at profit.

But if it’s happening I would tell someone to jump on it. I can barely keep costs under $100 a ft on my own projects lol.

I’ll pull up the production pricing tomorrow at the office and post it.

 

[Done-it-again]

RDP - Hallett needs to build a boat for cost at $2500 a foot for entry level boaters.

Also RDP - building a entry level house can’t be done for $200 per square foot.. I need to make a profit



This place delivers.

Lot more into a house than a boat.

 

[NicPaus]

Your not building a new house in CA for under 200$ a sq ft. Unless it's a track home. Solar, school fees, architect, engineering and fire sprinklers kill my build costs.

The 3 new houses on the lot I lived at for 10 years. I figured $300 a sq ft not including the land.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Lot more into a house than a boat.

There are a lot more houses built than boats

 

[530RL]

Your not building a new house in CA for under 200$ a sq ft. Unless it's a track home. Solar, school fees, architect, engineering and fire sprinklers kill my build costs.

The 3 new houses on the lot I lived at for 10 years. I figured $300 a sq ft not including the land.

Crazy pricing in CA and huge demand.

This deal is effectively sold out. We are involved in another 500 lots nearby. Lot improvement costs are over 500 each just for horizontal improvements. And ten years for entitlements.

It’s crazy in Orange County.

New Homes Orange County | Tour Your Dream Home Today | New Construction Orange County Homes for Sale

Orange County new home builder Shea Homes, has a variety of homes for sale! From 1 story to 2 story plans with up to 5 bedrooms and 5.5 baths, discover the home that is perfect for you today!

www.sheahomes.com

 

[regor]

Some good deals coming in CRE.

Downtown LA’s Office Distress Shows the Pain Coming for Cities

Brookfield has defaulted on three towers, while other landlords have sold for a loss or face foreclosure.

www.bloomberg.com

Coming to a downtown near you!!!

 

[Done-it-again]

There are a lot more houses built than boats

And you would think they would be cheaper