For the Real Estate Drop in sales and price Naysayers HOLD ONTO YOUR HATS

[BHC Vic]

All rentals but I think the one he bought last they plan on using. I know the boat and jet ski are there and he bought a Ford truck to leave there. Honestly I don’t get it but it’s none of my business. Work is slow and he’s been taking a ton of days off. His son isn’t working and has been off about a month. As long as rent stays high and he has renters he’s going to be just fine. I know he had a hard time qualifying for this last house a few weeks ago but they got it done. Lots of payments but like I said it really none of my business and the only reason I know or talk about it is because he posts it. He’s very proud and he should be. He came to this country at 14 and it’s been an uphill battle the whole way. He can be a little annoying but I’m sure worse can be said about me. I got respect for him.

 

[NicPaus]

You can't make it big without risk. I have lost a house trying. And back at it again. This time keeping the property. Not trying to buy and sell. The wealthiest people I know own a lot of properties. And risked it all at one point or another.

Today we are working on a triplex. They overpaid for it at the time and were coming out of pocket on the mortgage. Now it's doubled in price and rent has gone way up. The one unit I remodeled 12 years ago. It was $900 then.. now $2800.

Worked on another rental yesterday. Same deal bought 13 years ago. Had to put 150k into it. Barely pulled it off. He said he has made half a million on rent since and it went up 600-700k in value.

 

[hallett21]

You can't make it big without risk. I have lost a house trying. And back at it again. This time keeping the property. Not trying to buy and sell. The wealthiest people I know own a lot of properties. And risked it all at one point or another.

Today we are working on a triplex. They overpaid for it at the time and were coming out of pocket on the mortgage. Now it's doubled in price and rent has gone way up. The one unit I remodeled 12 years ago. It was $900 then.. now $2800.

Worked on another rental yesterday. Same deal bought 13 years ago. Had to put 150k into it. Barely pulled it off. He said he has made half a million on rent since and it went up 600-700k in value.

I think a lot of great opportunities are passed because it doesn’t “pencil today”.

If you could make money day one everyone would be doing it lol

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I think a lot of great opportunities are passed because it doesn’t “pencil today”.

If you could make money day one everyone would be doing it lol

For sure. My focus has narrowed for new properties. I don’t want to be coming out of pocket. Being a single income household limits my appetite for risk.

I find myself asking “Do I want to throw that much money out there for that return?” “Is this the best I could do?”Even though I know rents will come up in the future.

 

[regor]

Vornado Realty Trust has suspended its dividend for the rest of the year, the latest troubling sign for the real estate investment trust.


New York City’s second-largest office landlord announced the move late Wednesday evening, Crain’s reported. The firm won’t be giving regular distributions to shareholders again this year, bucking the norm among REITs and suggesting serious financial concerns at the company.


The REIT led by Steven Roth paid out more than $400 million in dividends last year.

Vornado suspends dividend for 2023

Vornado, New York City’s second-largest commercial landlord, suspended its dividend for the rest of 2023 in the latest snag.

therealdeal.com

 

[pronstar]

The declining commercial RE market is really contributing to bank woes, as CRE is often an over-leveraged asset on bank balance sheets.

What was once considered blue-chip is often hovering at or near junk status today.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I took an extended break from RDP (I gave it up for lent) and can't help but get back into this shark-infested water with a question.

Layoffs seem to be coming and hitting white-collar workers. I was unaware that Jumbo interest-only loans had become widespread in specific demographics.

Do mortgage holders more aggressively seek foreclosure if a borrower is delinquent this time around to unwind low-interest loans and get the property back in the market to re-establish a mortgage at a higher rate if the opportunity presents itself?

In the late 2000s, many delinquent homeowners who faced foreclosure seemed to be able to stay in the property rent-free for extended periods while the banks figured out how to deal with the inventory. IF we see increases in unemployment and leveraged people can't pay, will the Government step in again with a foreclosure moratorium?

Diesel fuel demand seems to be shrinking, which could tell me that shipping demand is down and that we are just starting to see some leading indicators of recession.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I took an extended break from RDP (I gave it up for lent) and can't help but get back into this shark-infested water with a question.

Layoffs seem to be coming and hitting white-collar workers. I was unaware that Jumbo interest-only loans had become widespread in specific demographics.

Do mortgage holders more aggressively seek foreclosure if a borrower is delinquent this time around to unwind low-interest loans and get the property back in the market to re-establish a mortgage at a higher rate if the opportunity presents itself?

In the late 2000s, many delinquent homeowners who faced foreclosure seemed to be able to stay in the property rent-free for extended periods while the banks figured out how to deal with the inventory. IF we see increases in unemployment and leveraged people can't pay, will the Government step in again with a foreclosure moratorium?

Diesel fuel demand seems to be shrinking, which could tell me that shipping demand is down and that we are just starting to see some leading indicators of recession.

If it gets bad there will absolutely be a foreclosure moratorium in an election year

 

[NicPaus]

If it gets bad there will absolutely be a foreclosure moratorium in an election year

Maybe our POS president will forgive our mortgage debt Lol. They forgave all those ppp loans. Now I wish I would of listened to a lot of my friends. One still has 60k left of the 440k they gave him.

 

[regor]

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

Agent friend of mine just went into escrow on her listing in Riverside. In 3 days, 30 showings and 9 offers. Selling for well over list.

 

[JL95]

There are a ton of projects out there, just need them to release the phases to keep on trucking. We are in new home construction. How much can we blame the rain delays here in socal for this? What say you

 

[Sportin' Wood]

This is a long watch at 26 minutes, but it is pretty good with some interesting historical perspectives. For added fun, they throw out some dates as to when they believe things will happen at the end of the video.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

Today foreclosure starts are rising but overall delinquency is still low. It's not really on the radar yet.

Banks will absolutely move to foreclose as long as property values are above loan amounts.

If the market crashes then banks will try and get creative. Select properties will become reo rentals. Others will sell at a loss. Most will keep a paying borrower in place with a modification. The house will be better taken care of if the homeowner is the one making the payments.

We are a long way off from that though. 2006 was the peak, 2007 was the crash, and foreclosures didn't really start to flood the market until 2009 and 2010. We haven't seen default rates rise enough for this to be.a concern yet.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Today foreclosure starts are rising but overall delinquency is still low. It's not really on the radar yet.

Banks will absolutely move to foreclose as long as property values are above loan amounts.

If the market crashes then banks will try and get creative. Select properties will become reo rentals. Others will sell at a loss. Most will keep a paying borrower in place with a modification. The house will be better taken care of if the homeowner is the one making the payments.

We are a long way off from that though. 2006 was the peak, 2007 was the crash, and foreclosures didn't really start to flood the market until 2009 and 2010. We haven't seen default rates rise enough for this to be.a concern yet.

100%

Jobs, jobs, jobs….

 

[Cdog]

This is a long watch at 26 minutes, but it is pretty good with some interesting historical perspectives. For added fun, they throw out some dates as to when they believe things will happen at the end of the video.

Uneducated Doom pimp for click bait. He makes money off the advertising.

Pro tip - don’t take financial advice from a guy in a waiter costume

 

[Done-it-again]

The declining commercial RE market is really contributing to bank woes, as CRE is often an over-leveraged asset on bank balance sheets.

What was once considered blue-chip is often hovering at or near junk status today.

Are commercial real-estate issues you speak of only for "office space" buildings? cause trying to by an industrial buildings for light manufacturing is crazy $$$$

 

[Cdog]

Are commercial real-estate issues you speak of only for "office space" buildings? cause trying to by an industrial buildings for light manufacturing is crazy $$$$

This. At best it's a regional issue. Exchange buyers our of CA are pushing many of my customers out of the market keeping them stuck in smaller leases stalling growth and expansion of their company taking on more work.

We could have a 300% increase of industrial and flex space here in Phoenix and still be in a sellers market. Even with these rates...

 

[Havasu blue label]

Agent friend of mine just went into escrow on her listing in Riverside. In 3 days, 30 showings and 9 offers. Selling for well over list.

That part of California will always sell

 

[Done-it-again]

This. At best it's a regional issue. Exchange buyers our of CA are pushing many of my customers out of the market keeping them stuck in smaller leases stalling growth and expansion of their company taking on more work.

We could have a 300% increase of industrial and flex space here in Phoenix and still be in a sellers market. Even with these rates...

In the IE budlings are around $300-350 depending on building construction.

We had a pretty cheap lease for a long time, but since the land lord lost his ass on his building next to us renting it out to an illegal grow that F'd up the bulling and got raided by the PD. He's looking at recouping lost $$$$.

 

[Cdog]

In the IE budlings are around $300-350 depending on building construction.

We had a pretty cheap lease for a long time, but since the land lord lost his ass on his building next to us renting it out to an illegal grow that F'd up the bulling and got raided by the PD. He's looking at recouping lost $$$$.

The weed losers are all over the place. It's a real pain in the ass. Then you read about the off the books weed being so much cheaper because of all the state taxes. LOL!

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Uneducated Doom pimp for click bait. He makes money off the advertising.

Pro tip - don’t take financial advice from a guy in a waiter costume

Did you watch it, or is it just your opinion based on his history of clickbait promotions? Since you are offering Pro-Tips, would you care to outline where he is incorrect?

Not-Pro-Tip, I tend not to use how a person dresses as a benchmark for the value of their message.

Yes, this guy is a pro at clickbait, but his guest offers some decent historical perspective and data. Just so I am clear, are you saying no recession in 2023?

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Did you watch it, or is it just your opinion based on his history of clickbait promotions? Since you are offering Pro-Tips, would you care to outline where he is incorrect?

Not-Pro-Tip, I tend not to use how a person dresses as a benchmark for the value of their message.

Yes, this guy is a pro at clickbait, but his guest offers some decent historical perspective and data. Just so I am clear, are you saying no recession in 2023?

We are already in a recession in 2023.

Everyone has their take based on whatever “FACTS” they choose to accept or deny. But there is very little historical perspective that overlays the situation we are currently in… specifically as it relates to housing prices.

By all historical data housing should be in the toilet and the economy should be crushed already. We can view those prognostications in this thread and others from a year ago.

What no historical perspective has is post-covid YOLO spending. We don’t know how this story ends up. Maybe we are in the 2nd inning now. Unless we start seeing hundreds of thousands of job losses right now through the rest of the year, not much is happening with housing in 2023.

One thing is certain.. unless you are paying cash, you were better off buying a house a year ago than today.

 

[Cdog]

Did you watch it, or is it just your opinion based on his history of clickbait promotions? Since you are offering Pro-Tips, would you care to outline where he is incorrect?

Not-Pro-Tip, I tend not to use how a person dresses as a benchmark for the value of their message.

Yes, this guy is a pro at clickbait, but his guest offers some decent historical perspective and data. Just so I am clear, are you saying no recession in 2023?

I'm not giving him a click. I watched a video or two of his some 6-8 months ago. He's a snake oil doom pimp. Take my advice or not. See if he has any results from his BS. I'd bet he doesn't.

 

[EmpirE231]

Agent friend of mine just went into escrow on her listing in Riverside. In 3 days, 30 showings and 9 offers. Selling for well over list.

is she moving the same volume that she was 10-12 months ago?

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

In the IE budlings are around $300-350 depending on building construction.

We had a pretty cheap lease for a long time, but since the land lord lost his ass on his building next to us renting it out to an illegal grow that F'd up the bulling and got raided by the PD. He's looking at recouping lost $$$$.

I really felt bad for him. We ended up bidding that job with the help of another restoration company. It was in the 6 figures.

The damage was insane. I couldn't believe how extensive that operation was and what these people were able to construct.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Take my advice or not.

So don't take advice from a person who dresses like a waiter.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

is she moving the same volume that she was 10-12 months ago?

She is a solo agent so usually does a couple transactions per month. She is still consistent, but the teams are the ones really hurting. They need the volume to make up for the huge marketing budgets.

 

[Done-it-again]

I really felt bad for him. We ended up bidding that job with the help of another restoration company. It was in the 6 figures.

The damage was insane. I couldn't believe how extensive that operation was and what these people were able to construct.

I did too at first, but found out later he knew all about it and raised their rent to compensate. Then when the building got raided he got scared of them and gave the growers all their stuff back. 22 ac units, 2 car size diesels generators, all the grow lights, hydro grow tables, fertilizer, etc. There was about 4500 sq of grow rooms.

The restoration company finished about a few months ago. Now it just needs TI work as all the drywall has been cut up on walls and the ceiling tiles in the office are gone along with most of the insallation. Going to need some work, but he has it listed for sale.... 3.5mil from what I was told.

 

[pronstar]

Are commercial real-estate issues you speak of only for "office space" buildings? cause trying to by an industrial buildings for light manufacturing is crazy $$$$

From what I’m reading, office space is top of the list.

Amazon walked from some warehousing, but companies are sitting in a ton of inventory and that’s starting to become a real problem.

I haven’t read anything about light manufacturing, that’s a bit out of my wheelhouse.
My lizard brain tells me that the push to increase domestic manufacturing may help prop-up that sector, but I’m just guessing.

 

[gqchris]

I feel some weirdness happening in the tech industry last few weeks. This lastest layoff is being blamed on "Artificial Intelligence", but I just dont buy it.

Dropbox lays off 500 employees, 16% of staff, CEO says due to slowing growth and 'the era of AI' | TechCrunch

Dropbox drops 16% of its staff, about 500 employees, due to slowing growth, and because "the AI era of computing has finally arrived."

techcrunch.com

 

[arch stanton]

I feel some weirdness happening in the tech industry last few weeks. This lastest layoff is being blamed on "Artificial Intelligence", but I just dont buy it.

Dropbox lays off 500 employees, 16% of staff, CEO says due to slowing growth and 'the era of AI' | TechCrunch

Dropbox drops 16% of its staff, about 500 employees, due to slowing growth, and because "the AI era of computing has finally arrived."

techcrunch.com

i have always though that AI would take jobs from the people that worked in IT sector pretty fast along with the out sourcing to India if you can’t tell your talking to AI and don’t have to deal with a heavy accent that’s hard to understand could be easier on consumers and companies maybe able to avoid the negative blow back from using foreign customer support

 

[77charger]

Maybe our POS president will forgive our mortgage debt Lol. They forgave all those ppp loans. Now I wish I would of listened to a lot of my friends. One still has 60k left of the 440k they gave him.

Na won’t happen to me I only owe like 12 more years at 450 bucks a month. I would need to take a large second out default on that screw bank and my credit over then I qualify.

 

[cofooter]

i have always though that AI would take jobs from the people that worked in IT sector pretty fast along with the out sourcing to India if you can’t tell your talking to AI and don’t have to deal with a heavy accent that’s hard to understand could be easier on consumers and companies maybe able to avoid the negative blow back from using foreign customer support

It remains to be seen how AI will impact things. Remember when out-sourcing to India was the rage. Well alot of companies pulled back due to staffing issues, language issues, management issues, customer complaints, etc. With AI some of those problems will be eliminated but I would imagine it will be some time before the kinks are worked out enough to not piss people off. Nothing like calling and getting to talk to a real english speaking human........

 

[hallett21]

I did too at first, but found out later he knew all about it and raised their rent to compensate. Then when the building got raided he got scared of them and gave the growers all their stuff back. 22 ac units, 2 car size diesels generators, all the grow lights, hydro grow tables, fertilizer, etc. There was about 4500 sq of grow rooms.

The restoration company finished about a few months ago. Now it just needs TI work as all the drywall has been cut up on walls and the ceiling tiles in the office are gone along with most of the insallation. Going to need some work, but he has it listed for sale.... 3.5mil from what I was told.

How many square feet?

 

[hallett21]

My brother is having a hell of a time getting clients into industrial space in LA. What used to be sub $1 a ft is now $2+.

People are still hung up on what they were paying vs what’s out there. They’ve put offers in 10 cents under asking and have been rejected. Building owners are basically saying take it or kick rocks (on industrial).

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

I feel some weirdness happening in the tech industry last few weeks. This lastest layoff is being blamed on "Artificial Intelligence", but I just dont buy it.

Dropbox lays off 500 employees, 16% of staff, CEO says due to slowing growth and 'the era of AI' | TechCrunch

Dropbox drops 16% of its staff, about 500 employees, due to slowing growth, and because "the AI era of computing has finally arrived."

techcrunch.com

Agreed. Layoffs are coming in Tech. There is too much bloat and many of these companies have been stagnant on the innovation front.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

It remains to be seen how AI will impact things. Remember when out-sourcing to India was the rage. Well alot of companies pulled back due to staffing issues, language issues, management issues, customer complaints, etc. With AI some of those problems will be eliminated but I would imagine it will be some time before the kinks are worked out enough to not piss people off. Nothing like calling and getting to talk to a real english speaking human........

This. AI is only as good as the information it is fed and the feedback loops setup. It’s going to be awhile before it is hardened.

“Coding” as we know it will be a thing of the past in the next decade I’m betting.

 

[Done-it-again]

How many square feet?

What building? My current one is around 18,200 and the one what was a grow building is around 9,850 (under 10k)

 

[DrunkenSailor]

First republic is going into receivership. Stay tuned...

 

[jet496]

This. At best it's a regional issue. Exchange buyers our of CA are pushing many of my customers out of the market keeping them stuck in smaller leases stalling growth and expansion of their company taking on more work.

We could have a 300% increase of industrial and flex space here in Phoenix and still be in a sellers market. Even with these rates...

They wanted $2,700,000 for a 5700 sq ft building I liked here in San Diego & it's already sold. That would've cost like $15k a month to have.

 

[jet496]

Agreed. Layoffs are coming in Tech. There is too much bloat and many of these companies have been stagnant on the innovation front.

Yup, like Elon said about laying off 80% of his peeps, it just doesn't take that many people to run Twitter. They aren't even coming up with any new ideas, so what are these employees doing he said.

 

[bonesfab]

They wanted $2,700,000 for a 5700 sq ft building I liked here in San Diego & it's already sold. That would've cost like $15k a month to have.

And then pay the property taxes on top of that. Chingauo.

 

[DrunkenSailor]

FDIC prepares to place First Republic under receivership

News of the move came as the Fed and FDIC detailed their supervisory lapses before deposit runs caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March.

www.reuters.com

Another one bites the dust.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

FDIC prepares to place First Republic under receivership

News of the move came as the Fed and FDIC detailed their supervisory lapses before deposit runs caused the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March.

www.reuters.com

Another one bites the dust.

Not good. There are some heavy volume mortgage producers there that aren't getting any answers about what will happen to the loans they have in the pipeline. I am guessing it is a hard no on them funding.

 

[HNL2LHC]

Hey, not sure if this is the right thread……

if anyone is looking to buy $250k in windows and doors for their house I have a guy that bought product and they are not going to build the house.

Other than that we have done about 75% of our last year’s record sales amount in the first half of this year.

Everything is going well…until it is not.

 

[LuauLounge]

And then pay the property taxes on top of that. Chingauo.

Well, due to its increased value, you need more insurance.........

 

[Orange Juice]

This. AI is only as good as the information it is fed and the feedback loops setup. It’s going to be awhile before it is hardened.

“Coding” as we know it will be a thing of the past in the next decade I’m betting.

AI is all about reaction time and problem solving.

 

[arch stanton]

AI is all about reaction time and problem solving.

that maybe what it’s current use is but tech evolves like most all inventions
Pong was the first video game could you have imangened what we have now
compare the model T to current production cars

i know someone involved in the sex doll industry and they are going full speed to make a life like sex companion and there are big companies with big money behind it and they are excited about AI’s possibilities and they figure only needs to do a few things well sex, cook,clean and sex again and look good doing it

 

[bonesfab]

that maybe what it’s current use is but tech evolves like most all inventions
Pong was the first video game could you have imangened what we have now
compare the model T to current production cars

i know someone involved in the sex doll industry and they are going full speed to make a life like sex companion and there are big companies with big money behind it and they are excited about AI’s possibilities and they figure only needs to do a few things well sex, cook,clean and sex again and look good doing it

First women are getting replaced with men and now getting replaced with robots? Where is all the outrage. All these poor women are going to have to fend for themselves. How dare they.