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10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity - It's gonna be a big recession

COCA COLA COWBOY

COCA COLA COWBOY

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Some of you guys probably follow this and some probably don't. Just to enlighten some this is the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury. History has shown that when the it goes below 0.00, a recession usually follows in the next 6-12 months. This has literally happened twice recently now. It's currently -.07 and probably going to go much lower. You can be as positive as you want and I appreciate your positive outlook and your good vibes. I would love to live in Lala land and think the market will rebound quickly and we will be back living the high life. But I live in the real fucking world. It's going to get shitty!!!!





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rivermobster

rivermobster

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Englewood said:
Do you know the definition of a recession?
Click to expand...

I know when someone tells me...

"It's gonna get shitty" when everyone I know is buried in work...

I'm not going to fret about how "shitty" it's going to get! 😝

Talked to Mike at JMS Racing yesterday. He said he has over 70 engines in his shop at the moment, and he can barely keep up with the work load.

I'll be over here in lala land I suppose?

P. S. I spent about 40 min on the phone with my investment guy yesterday. Obviously he didn't have the news about today at that time, but he wasn't too worried, no matter which way today was going to play out. His strategy is long term. 😊
 
c_land

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COCA COLA COWBOY said:
Some of you guys probably follow this and some probably don't. Just to enlighten some this is the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury. History has shown that when the it goes below 0.00, a recession usually follows in the next 6-12 months. This has literally happened twice recently now. It's currently -.07 and probably going to go much lower. You can be as positive as you want and I appreciate your positive outlook and your good vibes. I would love to live in Lala land and think the market will rebound quickly and we will be back living the high life. But I live in the real fucking world. It's going to get shitty!!!!





View attachment 1135699 View attachment 1135700
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-0.13 basis points since your post. The market wants the fed to hike faster and is also pricing the growth risk that a higher fed funds rate entials.

1657734015695.png


Edit: 1 full percentage Fed Funds rate hike now being traded in futures.

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PaPaG

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c_land said:
-0.13 basis points since your post. The market wants the fed to hike faster and is also pricing the growth risk that a higher fed funds rate entials.

View attachment 1135868
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The market wants to get it over with like pulling the band aid off in one quick rip...the fed was so far behind on this it bit them in the ass, well actually bit investors in the ass. I expect a .75 rate increase in 2 weeks, maybe another .75 in Sept meeting and possibly a .25 in Oct. I would have rather had them increase at 1.0 and 1.0 and get it over with, at least at that point we could buy a crap load more stock on the huge dips....
 
c_land

c_land

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PaPaG said:
The market wants to get it over with like pulling the band aid off in one quick rip...the fed was so far behind on this it bit them in the ass, well actually bit investors in the ass. I expect a .75 rate increase in 2 weeks, maybe another .75 in Sept meeting and possibly a .25 in Oct. I would have rather had them increase at 1.0 and 1.0 and get it over with, at least at that point we could buy a crap load more stock on the huge dips....
Click to expand...

I think we all want this over with. Powell has been trying to goldilocks this thing for the past year and now we all get to pay the price.

Funny that when markets were bleeding in March 2020, the fed called an emergency meeting and cut rates to zero while pumping massive liquidity into the financial system.

Now we are all feeling the hangover from poor monetary and fiscal policies, but have you seen any emergency meetings announcing rate hikes?
 
M

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c_land said:
Also, no stimmies to drag us out of this one. The bar has been set, you need both fiscal and monetary to get demand to really spike. Fiscal stimulus is probably not going to happen until we get a congress and president of the same party AND low inflation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1547224138330374150
Click to expand...

Code words for Inflation has not peaked.
Text book "Damned if they do, damned if they don't"

At least Manchin gets it.
 
pronstar

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c_land said:
I think we all want this over with. Powell has been trying to goldilocks this thing for the past year and now we all get to pay the price.

Funny that when markets were bleeding in March 2020, the fed called an emergency meeting and cut rates to zero while pumping massive liquidity into the financial system.

Now we are all feeling the hangover from poor monetary and fiscal policies, but have you seen any emergency meetings announcing rate hikes?
Click to expand...

100%
They’re going to prolong the bleeding by trying to engineer a “soft landing”.

While little is being done to bolster the supply-side constraints that are a root cause of it all.

And limiting domestic energy production makes things even worse.
 
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