2025 Stock Market Thread

[DILLIGAF]

These puts are gonna pay. Closing them out.

Shin.....Is that similar to shorting?

 

[DILLIGAF]

Well I think I’m gonna pull some money out of savings and start dollar cost averaging in.

I’m thinking VUG

What are some good long term buys?

Slow, steady and long term forget about it would be BRK-B

 

[CLdrinker]

NMTC just fell off a cliff.

 

[coolchange]

GME wtf. Only green on my chart lol!
And FFIE clown world

 

[shintoooo]

Shin.....Is that similar to shorting?

Yes but much riskier. I bought 30 of these these puts at $7.25 and sold them at $13.

You multiply everything by 100

 

[CLdrinker]

Just reloaded. I’m gonna sit tight for bit. Lots could happen over the weekend

 

[shintoooo]

Picked up some TSLA $300 calls 5/2. I think we’re gonna get a bounce here. Short term trade.

 

[Xring01]

Wow… China’s retallitory tariffs at 34%, means Trump plan will go up to 68% to China…???

Think they are telling us they no longer want to do business with the US…

That puts a smile on my face. Fuck those cheating bastards.

Lets put them out business, and see how many weapons they can build with no US revenue..

 

[CLdrinker]

Wow… China’s retallitory tariffs at 34%, means Trump plan will go up to 68% to China…???

Think they are telling us they no longer want to do business with the US…

That puts a smile on my face. Fuck those cheating bastards.

Lets put them out business, and see how many weapons they can build with no US revenue..

Without buying all of there china crsp off of amazon and all of the phones apple builds there it’s gonna hurt them worse than us.

 

[530RL]

Wow… China’s retallitory tariffs at 34%, means Trump plan will go up to 68% to China…???

Think they are telling us they no longer want to do business with the US…

That puts a smile on my face. Fuck those cheating bastards.

Lets put them out business, and see how many weapons they can build with no US revenue..

What about the other 7.7 billion customers in the world that will now want to do more business with China as they too are being tariffed by the US?

 

[FlyByWire]

If I wanna feel something I’ll play a 0dte.

The only way to fly.

 

[Xring01]

I got a bit $$$ left…
OMG… I plan on spending it today, even if things can get worse next week…

So many great deals to choose from… I am like kid in a candy store….
I need more $$$… this sucks…

In a year or so… those who sat this out, will regret it…

Who wants to buys some guns/RV’s/Boats/RZRs/Tools… I need $$$ to invest…

 

[Xring01]

What about the other 7.7 billion customers in the world that will now want to do more business with China as they too are being tariffed by the US?

And what happens to Xi, when the un employment rates skyrockets higher than it already is…
last I looked 28% un employment rates for people 18-28 years old… that was before the Tariff situation.

What is the percentage of Chinas total exports/economy that goes to the US…

Combine that with the aging population, the housing crisis, that most countries are “onshoring” their needs and no longer buying from China…

China was on a downward path well before the tariffs… This speed’s things up alot.

I highly encourage every one to dig into the housing nightmare that China has. They are technically bankrupt over that alone. But the government will not allow the major builders to go BK… Look up Evergrand and I recall the one that 3 times larger than them, but it will come to me later… Spoiler alert… there are 3 homes for every family in China right now… with no buyers to buy them.

Youtube search “China housing crisis”… watch a few of them… even if the reports are off by 50%, China is fucked.

If your a top dog country in the “Global Economy”, you cant replace your largest customer overnight…
That goes for every country. Including us….

 

[Havasu blue label]

Today is going to be a blood bath.

It’s time to buy it will rebound

 

[Havasu blue label]

And what happens to Xi, when the un employment rates skyrockets higher than it already is…
last I looked 28% un employment rates for people 18-28 years old… that was before the Tariff situation.

What is the percentage of Chinas total exports/economy that goes to the US…

Combine that with the aging population, the housing crisis, that most countries are “onshoring” their needs and no longer buying from China…

China was on a downward path well before the tariffs… This speed’s things up alot.

I highly encourage every one to dig into the housing nightmare that China has. They are technically bankrupt over that alone. But the government will not allow the major builders to go BK… Look up Evergrand and I recall the one that 3 times larger than them, but it will come to me later… Spoiler alert… there are 3 homes for every family in China right now… with no buyers to buy them.

Youtube search “China housing crisis”… watch a few of them… even if the reports are off by 50%, China is fucked.

If your a top dog country in the “Global Economy”, you cant replace your largest customer overnight…
That goes for every country. Including us….

Cool story

 

[BHC Vic]

What about the other 7.7 billion customers in the world that will now want to do more business with China as they too are being tariffed by the US?

Fuck them too

 

[Xring01]

PLTR
you all know I have owned it for 4 years or more…

But with the little $$$ I have left… @$75…
It might be a great swing trade at this level… The key reason… PLTR is truly focused on the US Economy, it doesnt have much “Global” exposure. Its software, not hardware, and US based… No Tariff concerns…

Once the turmoil settles down. It should bounce back faster than most…. Counter arguement is its over priced to begin with…

Let me know your thoughts, or what do you think I am missing. Or do you see better company to buy?

I see easy 10-20% short term (3-4months) and alot more long term…

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Was it @CLdrinker drinker that was calling for PLTR at $60? Might get there at this rate.

 

[hallett21]

Everyone clinging to Jpow lol

 

[530RL]

Was it @CLdrinker drinker that was calling for PLTR at $60? Might get there at this rate.

What if the next step in a trade war was to ban certain products that imbed as a security risk?

Certainly happened before.

 

[CLdrinker]

What if the next step in a trade war was to ban certain products that imbed as a security risk?

Certainly happened before.

If our Allies ban Palantir they are destroying their war fighting ability as well as denying a company that increases profitability when that is most crucial now.

I think this tariff war is a big win for Palantir

 

[gqchris]

It looks like my china golf cart may be worth way more than I paid for a few months ago. Lol

 

[Tank]

Hate to say it but this is exactly what the market needs. Can’t have a bull market for this long. It’s unsustainable.

Needs to adjust.

And while I hate China and their junk they make, it’s super cheap and they say 2/3rds of everything in everyone’s house is made in China. That’s gonna fuckin hurt for a lot of people. But long term it’s going to be great for America. We should NOT be relying on another country for anything ever.

 

[~JM~]

Thoughts on META & MSFT?

 

[coolchange]

Thinking of selling my PANW, still way up, and going to more PLTR? Thoughts over the week end.
Maybe putting the wife in the S&P

 

[coolchange]

Thoughts on META & MSFT?

I watched Felix Pren last night on META. He makes a good case.

 

[Sportin' Wood]

Forgive my ignorance, where's all the cash going from these sales? Seems like it won't stay in a mattress for long.

 

[Orange Juice]

Forgive my ignorance, wheres all the cash going from these sales? Seems like it won't stay in a mattress for long.

GOVT. is a good spot.

 

[FROGMAN524]

It’s time to buy it will rebound

Everything is on sale today

 

[Xring01]

I watched Felix Pren last night on META. He makes a good case.

That dudes voice… I cant listen to him for long, but I do like his thought process’s

 

[702sandman]

Hate to say it but this is exactly what the market needs. Can’t have a bull market for this long. It’s unsustainable.

Needs to adjust.

And while I hate China and their junk they make, it’s super cheap and they say 2/3rds of everything in everyone’s house is made in China. That’s gonna fuckin hurt for a lot of people. But long term it’s going to be great for America. We should NOT be relying on another country for anything ever.

I agree 1000% …the only thing i see that is hard to overcome is that we have way higher labor rates here in the States and China, Vietnam, Japan, Mexico etc do not have that same issue, they can get away with paying 10 bucks a day. So how do we ever compete with that ? If they move here their prices will have to go up ALOT so that makes us pay more ? I get buying all American but we have priced ourselves out of the market on a lot of items. I just don’t see how we will ever make things cheaper here in the States without the prices of those items going sky high which negatively affects us ….just my thoughts on this

 

[shintoooo]

There will be an announcement by the administration soon that will drive the market up crazy. Just be patient. It's coming. It will drive the market up 1000+. Could be today, could be next week.

 

[Cole Trickle]

I agree 1000% …the only thing i see that is hard to overcome is that we have way higher labor rates here in the States and China, Vietnam, Japan, Mexico etc do not have that same issue, they can get away with paying 10 bucks a day. So how do we ever compete with that ? If they move here their prices will have to go up ALOT so that makes us pay more ? I get buying all American but we have priced ourselves out of the market on a lot of items. I just don’t see how we will ever make things cheaper here in the States without the prices of those items going sky high which negatively affects us ….just my thoughts on this

We will never have an even playing field with China. I' think there are some products that can over come the cost difference but we would be talking huge inflation in the USA.

Do you ever get an item from Amazon and look at the product, the box it came in and shipping and go how in the world is this possible? I do that alot...lol

We are now used to cheap junk. (Do we go back to the times of 5k 55" tv's and 5k iPhone?)

My gut says there is way more going on behind the scenes and my only home is they are playing chess not checkers. The US needs to refinance about 9 trillion in debt this year. If they crash the stock market and people jump to the bond market for stability that will lower rates. If this works out and they can refinance for a good deal and immediately turn around and cut most of these tariffs I don't think it completely bombs the economy. The down side is it could absolutely destroy the economy.

I agree we need to bring things back to the USA but most companies could careless about the US citizen and only care about record profits. If teh prie jumps on an item they are going to sell less.

 

[Member: 71]

My Fidelity alerts just topped how many unread emails I got on Gmail.

 

[Tank]

I agree 1000% …the only thing i see that is hard to overcome is that we have way higher labor rates here in the States and China, Vietnam, Japan, Mexico etc do not have that same issue, they can get away with paying 10 bucks a day. So how do we ever compete with that ? If they move here their prices will have to go up ALOT so that makes us pay more ? I get buying all American but we have priced ourselves out of the market on a lot of items. I just don’t see how we will ever make things cheaper here in the States without the prices of those items going sky high which negatively affects us ….just my thoughts on this

I agree totally. I think we’ve let things get out of hand going for the cheap labor and depending on china (RX and micro chips for example) we have to find a happy medium. I think that’s part of this tariff war. Not to mention just make leveling the paying field. Cheap t shirts and tvs in China cool. The important stuff? Not so much. Balance it out. Given them waaaaay too much control over us. Theres gonna be some adjustment and pain in the ass moments but again, this was a long time coming.

 

[Outdrive1]

We will never have an even playing field with China. I' think there are some products that can over come the cost difference but we would be talking huge inflation in the USA.

Do you ever get an item from Amazon and look at the product, the box it came in and shipping and go how in the world is this possible? I do that alot...lol

We are now used to cheap junk. (Do we go back to the times of 5k 55" tv's and 5k iPhone?)

My gut says there is way more going on behind the scenes and my only home is they are playing chess not checkers. The US needs to refinance about 9 trillion in debt this year. If they crash the stock market and people jump to the bond market for stability that will lower rates. If this works out and they can refinance for a good deal and immediately turn around and cut most of these tariffs I don't think it completely bombs the economy. The down side is it could absolutely destroy the economy.

I agree we need to bring things back to the USA but most companies could careless about the US citizen and only care about record profits. If teh prie jumps on an item they are going to sell less.

The Fed just said tariffs will raise inflation. Rates are here to stay. Dow just dropped below 39k. It’s starting to look like the tariff idea wasn’t really thought out. How about we negotiate before we lose trillions of dollars and tank our economy. Wtf

Guess I’m not retiring anytime soon..,….. Mother fucker.

 

[Cole Trickle]

The Fed just said tariffs will raise inflation. Rates are here to stay. Dow just dropped below 39k. It’s starting to look like the tariff idea wasn’t really thought out. How about we negotiate before we lose trillions of dollars and tank our economy. Wtf

Guess I’m not retiring anytime soon Mother fucker.

My only hope is they have people much smarter than us running this game.

This will almost certainly stop the fed from lowering the rate in may. I actually think that could be good as inflation still needs to be killed.

I guess the only good news is its way cheaper to buy a Ford today than it was last week...lol

 

[Sportin' Wood]

I agree 1000% …the only thing i see that is hard to overcome is that we have way higher labor rates here in the States and China, Vietnam, Japan, Mexico etc do not have that same issue, they can get away with paying 10 bucks a day. So how do we ever compete with that ? If they move here their prices will have to go up ALOT so that makes us pay more ? I get buying all American but we have priced ourselves out of the market on a lot of items. I just don’t see how we will ever make things cheaper here in the States without the prices of those items going sky high which negatively affects us ….just my thoughts on this

This is what we should be debating, how do we succeed?

Automation comes to mind. Replace the $10 labor with machines.

Some things we are not going to bother trying to build here. It might be OK if a TV costs a little more.

Someone asked this week about American made clothes and suggested we can't buy American.

100% Montana-Grown Merino Wool Clothes | Duckworth

Duckworth is proud to be the only source-verified, single-origin Merino Wool clothing brand with high-quality wool shirts, bottoms, and socks.

www.duckworthco.com

Things like Bags

Tactical Gear & Aviation Bags, Military Duffels - MADE IN USA QUALITY

Explore Red Oxx for durable, American-made travel gear designed for the rigors of adventure. From rugged carry-on bags to versatile travel accessories, discover products built for a lifetime of exploration.

www.redoxx.com

Knives

https://www.montanaknifecompany.com

Yes it may cost a little more for American made products, But IMHO, they seem to be products that last longer and give me way more value than disposable crap from China. Optimized Consumption means that you need to replace it often.

BTW these are awesome, it's like your balls are riding on a cloud.

Merino Wool Underwear | Men's Vapor Brief | Montana Merino

Men's Merino Wool underwear, made in the USA with our proprietary Vapor fabric. These wool underwear are soft, cooling, supportive, no-itch, and comfortable.

www.duckworthco.com

 

[Runs2rch]

BIGLY!!!!

 

[Xring01]

I agree 1000% …the only thing i see that is hard to overcome is that we have way higher labor rates here in the States and China, Vietnam, Japan, Mexico etc do not have that same issue, they can get away with paying 10 bucks a day. So how do we ever compete with that ? If they move here their prices will have to go up ALOT so that makes us pay more ? I get buying all American but we have priced ourselves out of the market on a lot of items. I just don’t see how we will ever make things cheaper here in the States without the prices of those items going sky high which negatively affects us ….just my thoughts on this

I agree with your thought process and this topic is one that the brightest PHD Economist will argue…

The counter thought process is the US has been a consumer driven economy for awhile now… and it has worked for the most part.
So can we have the best of both?

The US is learning that “low cost country” strategy has not worked the way we wanted it to, and there have been some very negative side effects. Covid situation damn sure highlighted the weakness of that strategy. So something has to change. Most countries are on shoring there basic needs. Its not just the US.

I am not an economist at all, like most, I have more questions than answers.

My opinion… the tariff strategy creates more good for the US economy, than bad. The key thing that I love about it. Trump is telling the rest of the world. The US is sick and tired of being taken advantage of. If you want to do business with the US, then level the playing field. Most countries will do exactly that. Those that dont. We know where they stand… when they have a issue, dont expect the US to bail their dumb ass’s out.

 

[coolchange]

Forgive my ignorance, where's all the cash going from these sales? Seems like it won't stay in a mattress for long.

There’s already eleventythreeeightyfive gaztrillion dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to jump. Bonds money market?
My thought is with all that sidelined cash when it hits it will be hard?
Is this the down side of that V they’re predicting?

 

[Orange Juice]

What ever you’re thinking, it doesn’t change the fact we have been warned by Trump repeatedly, he’s going to fuck a lot of people before he leaves office. This is payback bitch.

 

[shintoooo]

What ever you’re thinking, it doesn’t change the fact we have been warned by Trump repeatedly, he’s going to fuck a lot of people before he leaves office. This is payback bitch.

 

[CLdrinker]

First VUG order filled


Tip Toe in

 

[Fastech382]

Side note, but corelating to the us dollar and exchange drops, I saw that around 9 trillion of the U.S debt matured on Tuesday and was due for refinance, which is at much higher yields now. It's not will it be lean, but how lean will it get.

 

[Orange Juice]

Remember the last time they halted trading? We’re not there yet.

 

[hallett21]

There will be an announcement by the administration soon that will drive the market up crazy. Just be patient. It's coming. It will drive the market up 1000+. Could be today, could be next week.

Wild that calls could be up today lol

 

[shintoooo]

Yes but much riskier. I bought 30 of these these puts at $7.25 and sold them at $13.

You multiply everything by 100

These puts are $33 now. I left $60K on the table

 

[hallett21]

These puts are $33 now. I left $60K on the table

I left 100k the last day of February when S&P did that Ludacris eod rebalance.

 

[530RL]

I wonder how many of the people who think we are getting fucked by China would rather live in China, work in China or be Chinese?

If being an American, and experiencing the American dream is getting fucked by China and the Chinese people, I'll take a good fucking every day over having to fight for a living in China as a Chinese National.