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Housing.....Sell High, buy High?

Hammer

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Looking to get into a bigger house, the fact is its not if...its when. My first thought is sell high and rent till the housing market drops then buy low. That would mean renting for awhile, when looking at current rentals the monthly rent would be what I would pay in a mortgage (if not more) if we were to sell now and buy a bigger place.

The other option is waiting it out a year or so and I'm almost positive the value of the current home will drop as will the market. If we sell high buy high we don't have to worry about unloading the house when it is value has dropped and scrambling to find a bigger house.

Thoughts?
 

wsuwrhr

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I am hardly an expert, but the market interests me. I am hopefully done buying houses.

In my experience....

If you are selling and buying at the same time....for the most part it is a relative number since each property is close to its market value.

Now if you are trying to time the market, that is when it becomes more critical. Doubtful the market can go up much more, but it could. If it does and you sell and rent, you could get hosed.

But if it goes down, and the economy tanks, then you have to worry about being able to QUALIFY for a mortgage. But hopefully you will have a nice down payment from the proceeds of the sale of your former house.

I believe the sell and rent deal has other issues too, such as capital gains if the money isn't used for a purchase in a certain timeframe.

Brian
 

BHC Vic

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I'd say if there's a good amount of equity sell now and buy now. Or sell now and rent till you find a good deal. House prices are ridiculous. My parents paid half of what I did for a much nicer house in a nicer area. To me the math doesn't work out. If my parents sold now they would pocket quite a bit of money and could retire and live happily. For me to make that happen my house would have to be worth more than 1million. I don't see it happening. I was thinking about this on the drive home yesterday. The future looks interesting [emoji15]
 

Cole Trickle

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Its a gamble buddy...nobody really knows what is going to happen.

I will tell you that the sooner you get into the last house you will ever buy prior to perhaps a retirement/vacation home the better. I can't for the life of me understand why people that are 45-55 sell houses and buy a new house and put it on a 30 year buy. The whole benefit to buying a home is to pay it off so when you get to retirement you don't have a high mortgage and taxes. Sell now and but a home you could see yourself living in until the kids are done with high school. Pay as much as fast as you can to get out from under it and then you will be balling down the line.

Don't get caught up in needing a bigger house every 10 years it's financial suicide unless you get really lucky....buy a decent house in a great neighborhood with good schools you want to raise the kids in

Interest rates are also at an all time stupid low.....
 

wsuwrhr

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Its a gamble buddy...nobody really knows what is going to happen.

I will tell you that the sooner you get into the last house you will ever buy prior to perhaps a retirement/vacation home the better. I can't for the life of me understand why people that are 45-55 sell houses and buy a new house and put it on a 30 year buy. The whole benefit to buying a home is to pay it off so when you get to retirement you don't have a high mortgage and taxes. Sell now and but a home you could see yourself living in until the kids are done with high school. Pay as much as fast as you can to get out from under it and then you will be balling down the line.

Don't get caught up in needing a bigger house every 10 years it's financial suicide unless you get really lucky....buy a decent house in a great neighborhood with good schools you want to raise the kids in

Interest rates are also at an all time stupid low.....

truth.
 

Bobby V

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Its a gamble buddy...nobody really knows what is going to happen.

I will tell you that the sooner you get into the last house you will ever buy prior to perhaps a retirement/vacation home the better. I can't for the life of me understand why people that are 45-55 sell houses and buy a new house and put it on a 30 year buy. The whole benefit to buying a home is to pay it off so when you get to retirement you don't have a high mortgage and taxes. Sell now and but a home you could see yourself living in until the kids are done with high school. Pay as much as fast as you can to get out from under it and then you will be balling down the line.

Don't get caught up in needing a bigger house every 10 years it's financial suicide unless you get really lucky....buy a decent house in a great neighborhood with good schools you want to raise the kids in

Interest rates are also at an all time stupid low.....

Not every 55 year old needs a 2500 sq ft. 4 bedroom home when they retire. Its not easy going up all them steps. :D
 

BHC Vic

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Its a gamble buddy...nobody really knows what is going to happen.

I will tell you that the sooner you get into the last house you will ever buy prior to perhaps a retirement/vacation home the better. I can't for the life of me understand why people that are 45-55 sell houses and buy a new house and put it on a 30 year buy. The whole benefit to buying a home is to pay it off so when you get to retirement you don't have a high mortgage and taxes. Sell now and but a home you could see yourself living in until the kids are done with high school. Pay as much as fast as you can to get out from under it and then you will be balling down the line.

Don't get caught up in needing a bigger house every 10 years it's financial suicide unless you get really lucky....buy a decent house in a great neighborhood with good schools you want to raise the kids in

Interest rates are also at an all time stupid low.....

[emoji106][emoji106][emoji106] that's my game plan
 

Cole Trickle

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Not every 55 year old needs a 2500 sq ft. 4 bedroom home when they retire. Its not easy going up all them steps. :D

I can't tell you how many clients I deal with that are getting close to retirement age that have kids away at college sell there 2500 sq foot houses for 3200 sq foot houses that cost 300K more and put them on a 30 year buy.

They should be selling the 700K 2500 sq foot house and downsizing and throwing cash in the bank.

Were all retarded....no reason in the world for 2 people to have a 3500 sq foot 5/3 2 story house but it happens daily
 

thetub

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Hammer Its a Gut call... and kinda depends on your situation

sell high buy high is a wash except your gonna pay higher property taxes on the current house... and there is an exemption for couples of $500,00 far capital gains once every 3 years I think... check with our local Tax man Shintoo..

sell high buy low is the best case scenario and in my opinion if that happens Yellen can only lower rates even more to stimulate the economy again...

So you might even be able to buy at a lower price with lower rates... Look at Japan and Europe where their rates are...

But like Wusrswr said make sure you can qualify in that situation or you have a hefty down or even be able to pay it in cash if you had enough equity...

Best case scenario sell high with enough equity and pay your next house in cash if market drops or even buy same size house or smaller and walk away with some cash too...

Or you can pull an equity line out on your current house and use that money to buy your next house if market drops and rent your current house out...

At the end of the day its a gut call . You will either look like a genius or not so much...

My 1 cent opinion the market is way high and ready for a correction...
 

shintoooo

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My brother bought his house in 2010 for $500K and put it for sale a couple of weeks ago and had multiple offers the first day and they are in escrow at $800K. He just couldn't sit there and watch all that equity disappear when that next bubble pops and I don't blame him. When will the bubble pop? I'm not sure anyone knows.

In the meanwhile, he is going to rent a house and wait.
 

djunkie

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I'd say if there's a good amount of equity sell now and buy now. Or sell now and rent till you find a good deal. House prices are ridiculous. My parents paid half of what I did for a much nicer house in a nicer area. To me the math doesn't work out. If my parents sold now they would pocket quite a bit of money and could retire and live happily. For me to make that happen my house would have to be worth more than 1million. I don't see it happening. I was thinking about this on the drive home yesterday. The future looks interesting [emoji15]

Don't even get me started on what our parents paid for their homes. My dad bought his house in 1971 for under $30k. It's worth well over a million now. [emoji35]
 

BHC Vic

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Don't even get me started on what our parents paid for their homes. My dad bought his house in 1971 for under $30k. It's worth well over a million now. [emoji35]

See that's what I don't get. Will my house be worth over a million so I'll be sitting pretty? At what point does inflation just get too crazy. Maybe the end of an era? I don't know but according to history it's not good
 

Waterjunky

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I would firmly agree with the buy and stay put theory. That is where the wife and I are at. We are sinking fairly deep roots into our place. We are in it for the long haul. The real hitch in the plan is the wife's job. As the dominant breadwinner of the household (Yes I will gladly share the "trophy Husband" title with Grads) if her job changes, we could end up having to move. Of course that would require a significant raise....

Now might be a good time to sell for you with the market high, but I would not get in a huge rush to buy. I am not saying you should wait, just take your time and find the perfect long term home. If this happens right away great! if you rent for a year and the market softens, that is OK too. The only danger is if the market starts to climb again, but with cash from this house in hand (at least some) you can move faster if this happens. these changes don't happen overnight so its not like stocks where you went on vacation and came back to nothing.

For me, this house in the delta was a "do it once, do it right" type of deal.
 

LargeOrangeFont

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Its a gamble buddy...nobody really knows what is going to happen.

I will tell you that the sooner you get into the last house you will ever buy prior to perhaps a retirement/vacation home the better. I can't for the life of me understand why people that are 45-55 sell houses and buy a new house and put it on a 30 year buy. The whole benefit to buying a home is to pay it off so when you get to retirement you don't have a high mortgage and taxes. Sell now and but a home you could see yourself living in until the kids are done with high school. Pay as much as fast as you can to get out from under it and then you will be balling down the line.

Don't get caught up in needing a bigger house every 10 years it's financial suicide unless you get really lucky....buy a decent house in a great neighborhood with good schools you want to raise the kids in

Interest rates are also at an all time stupid low.....

I agree with CT, but keep in mind it is a sliding scale if your plan is to upgrade to a larger house in a similar area. That next level of house is always going to be $50-$100k more (or whatever it is) if the market is up or down. So waiting a year or two might save you some taxes and fees, but who knows what intrest might be. Just focus on finding the right house if you are already "in".

Im waiting until the next downturn to strike on our final house though.
 

rivermobster

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You have a small kid and a kid on the way. Think of buying a house for them and worry about the housing market in 18+ years when they are off to college. :p

Its a gamble buddy...nobody really knows what is going to happen.

I will tell you that the sooner you get into the last house you will ever buy prior to perhaps a retirement/vacation home the better. I can't for the life of me understand why people that are 45-55 sell houses and buy a new house and put it on a 30 year buy. The whole benefit to buying a home is to pay it off so when you get to retirement you don't have a high mortgage and taxes. Sell now and but a home you could see yourself living in until the kids are done with high school. Pay as much as fast as you can to get out from under it and then you will be balling down the line.

Don't get caught up in needing a bigger house every 10 years it's financial suicide unless you get really lucky....buy a decent house in a great neighborhood with good schools you want to raise the kids in

Interest rates are also at an all time stupid low.....


This ^^^

What's gonna happen is, when interest rates go back up, prices will come back down. So guess what? Your payment will be the same, except you'll be paying way more in interest! Buy while money is cheap. You're not an investor, you need a home, not a house. Find the best school district you can, and buy something there. The school district will be your guarantee, that you'll home will always appreciate.

Kids change everything. Let your life be about them now, and you'll never have any regrets! :thumbsup
 

USMC2010

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We are in our final house. As much as I would love an rv garage and a smaller home, at 2.25% for 15 years, I am done paying before I turn 60.
 

thetub

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See that's what I don't get. Will my house be worth over a million so I'll be sitting pretty? At what point does inflation just get too crazy. Maybe the end of an era? I don't know but according to history it's not good

Historically its 3-4% a year...

but we are living in strange times now...

worse case it will go up 1-2% on average...
 

t&y

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Hammer, I'm in the same spot. When we bought the housing market was low and we have a nice chunk of equity. The schools have gone to shit in our district so we have our kids in private school which is almost a complete second mortgage payment each month. We could literally more than double our house size right now for the right neighborhood. We could also rent our current house for probably a bit over a grand profit each month... but we don't have a the down payment saved to simply go buy another place from scratch without completely emptying the bank accounts.

So do we keep/rent current and buy big?
Do we sell and rent while sitting on equity waiting for the market to drop?
Do we sell and re invest right away making it a wash regardless of market, but loose the potential big gains over the next 20 years on our current property?

I lean more and more towards the first option... just having a hard time wrapping my head around doubling our mortgage.:grumble: But for the right neighborhood with good schools I really think it's worth it.
 

COCA COLA COWBOY

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The correction is coming that is for sure. I've already seen a decline in a few major areas. If Trump gets in there may be another bump in prices as his background is pro-development and I believe he would make it easier for developers to create units which in turn would create jobs, etc.

Money is cheap, but with a 20 trillion debt and shakey economy, I don't see rates going up any time soon or it would throw the entire economy in a tailspin.

One thing I absolutely hate is property taxes though. I'd much rather pay someone else's mortgage for 2 years as things decline than pay top prices and high property taxes for the duration. When there is a decline, it's a pain in the arse to file the paperwork to get the taxes reduced.

As most know, I'm in real estate with my main focus being listings at this time just because I ethically have a hard time putting people in homes at the top of the market. I literally have told clients I believe the market will decline before I start the process of helping them buy. Amazingly, I do have clients that continue to want to buy, but at least they know stats and are not lied to.
 

hallett21

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What about selling and buying something as an investment property and using the income to cover a rental? I think you'll be paying capital gains though if the new property is valued less than what you originally had.

I'd talk to a CPA on how a few scenarios will play out.
 

Cole Trickle

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It would be interesting to hear peoples view points on the next bubble....When I bought in 2006 I knew/felt we were about to hit a bubble and prices were going to drop but I had no idea we were going to be faced with the worst economy since the great depression.

If/when it drops again whats everyone's thoughts on %

There is so much foreign $$$ here now and the banks are much smarter than they were in the 80's-90's.......seemed like they shielded most of the smoking good deals
 

Abc123

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My brother bought his house in 2010 for $500K and put it for sale a couple of weeks ago and had multiple offers the first day and they are in escrow at $800K. He just couldn't sit there and watch all that equity disappear when that next bubble pops and I don't blame him. When will the bubble pop? I'm not sure anyone knows.

In the meanwhile, he is going to rent a house and wait.

Wise man.

My town home was $335k in 2012. Late last year, when my neighbor sold for $520k and builders started selling new town homes, on my street, of the same size, in the low $600's, I saw the sign. Time to cash out and rent.

The only reason why prices escalated from the 2008 crash was due to government intervention (bail outs and low interest rates). Homes should have never been at those prices and here we are approaching them again. There's only one thing that can justify increased prices and that's income. Yet, the average American income is slipping, while home prices are going up. That's inflation, not growth. Prices aren't going up, the dollar is becoming worth less.

As far as buying while rates are low: Rates always fluctuate. You can refi as rates go down. However, you can't call your bank and adjust your mortgage balance or ask for the down payment back that disappeared with the market decline. The smart idea should be to save and finance less, not finance more at a lessor rate. That's idiotic philosophy and why our country is in bad shape. Higher raters encourage people to save their money and pay cash for products. Low rates encourage accumulating debt.

If rates skyrocket, prices will have to reflect. Just as prices reflect a rate decrease. Southern CA experienced this most recently in 2013.

In my professional opinion. If you're in your final home, stay. If you plan to make a move in the next decade, get out now and wait (if you can).
 

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TCHB

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You have a small kid and a kid on the way. Think of buying a house for them and worry about the housing market in 18+ years when they are off to college. :p

I agree!
 

LargeOrangeFont

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See that's what I don't get. Will my house be worth over a million so I'll be sitting pretty? At what point does inflation just get too crazy. Maybe the end of an era? I don't know but according to history it's not good


Our houses are not going to rise in value at the rate they have in the last 30-40 years.
 

Riley1

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Don't forget about taxes. We bought our house in Chino in 2011. Tax rate is 1%. If I were to sell and buy the house across the street for the same price I sold mine for (say 200k more than I purchased it for). I would be paying an additional $2000 in Taxes a year.

My wife and I discussed selling the Chino house and moving back to San Dimas. The problem was, if we buy a house for what we sell ours for (we were looking for a smaller house, no need for 4 bedrooms) Our property taxes would triple. Go up from 1%(chino tax rate) to 2%(San Dimas tax rate (wooden sidewalks aren't cheap:rotflmao:)) on ≈$430k vs $250k. Just didn't make sense to us. So we bought a bigger boat instead:D.
 

Bobby V

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Wise man.

My town home was $335k in 2012. Late last year, when my neighbor sold for $520k and builders started selling new town homes, on my street, of the same size, in the low $600's, I saw the sign. Time to cash out and rent.


).

Isn't the renter next door to you some crazy cat lady. :yikes :p I will keep my house with all its equity. :D
 

Cole Trickle

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Well, we saw 30-40% last time around and in my opinion, 2007/2008 was nothing compared to what we are headed for.

I hope your right....lol:eek:thumbsup:cool

Not sure I see it though......I just don't see the fed letting that happen and there are way too many people out there that need to loan $$$ to make $$$.

Im also not sure that the buying market was quite as shitty this time around as it was from 02-06. Loans are getting easier but there not as easy as 03-06
 

Racey

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The last bubble happened because they dropped rates and lowered qualifying requirements leading to a massive spike in demand driving prices up.

In my opinion the next bubble pops when the supply finally over-runs the demand once all of these new developments that have been in the work for the last few years sell. Over saturating the market, there are only so many people that can afford to buy homes, qualify for loans etc. The building cant last forever, maybe 2 mores years.... and then there won't be any buyers. We've seen what the job market looks like for most people, all of these kids out of college with HUGE student loan debts have to take care of those before they can start thinking about mortgages, but very low job prospects for many that will service both their student loans and a mortgage. There are still many bank owned foreclosure properties sitting vacant from the last crash.

Kids are living with their parents longer than ever. This will have ripple effects through the housing market as people are only buying once they are much older than historical averages.

People out of the workforce altogether is at near historical highs. Again, this affects real demand

People only on part time employment and having to work multiple part time jobs also at highs, as businesses find way to skirt Obamacare's dictation that you have to provide Insurance for full timers if your business has over X employees.



As a side note to all of that I wouldn't worry about interest rates at all for at least the next 10 years, maybe even longer, They cannot afford to raise them by any substantial amount, it will absolutely decimate the stock markets, the housing market, and the government's ability to service the debt, They have dug a very deep hole with with 20 Trillion in debt to service.
 

Bigbore500r

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Im pondering the same thing. My house is small, 3 bedroom 1 bath 1400sqft. Probably worth 500k in our area all fixed up. I owe 340k. Could sell it, buy something larger with 2+ baths in a better neighborhood for 570k and probably owe 440 or so after the down. But it would be the home we stay in for 16-20 years, where we want to raise the kids.

Cheap money now .... or ????

I thought about selling high (now) , renting and watching the market. But then my interest write-off is gone, and I dont control my destiny anymore. And who wants to paint / buy furniture / tweak a rental to your liking, knowing next year the landlord can say "adios". I wouldn't want to relocate my kids around either once they start grade school.

Man...i just answered my own question. Not gonna sell and rent! Staying put or im gonna sell and buy something while money is cheap and the equity comes from one and into the other. If you're staying put for 15 years timing the market isn't as important, there will be another wave after this one is over.
 

Abc123

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I hope your right....lol:eek:thumbsup:cool

Not sure I see it though......I just don't see the fed letting that happen and there are way too many people out there that need to loan $$$ to make $$$.

Im also not sure that the buying market was quite as shitty this time around as it was from 02-06. Loans are getting easier but there not as easy as 03-06

It was a different problem then. In 2002-2006, if you could fog a mirror, you could get a loan. The RE bubble of then was reaction to the bursting .com bubble. When RE was ready to burst, hello government bubble. The government bailed everyone out. When stability increased, the banks bought all their homes back through hedge-funds. Lower REO inventory = higher prices. Then the FED lowered the rates which equated to even high prices. Inventory decrease and lower rates paved the way for builders to re-enter the market. My question is this, who will bail out the government when this bubble is ready to burst? The tax payers sure can't afford to, again.

The best way to have solved the dot.com bubble burst and the most recent RE bubble burst was to let the companies and banks fail and let the economy reset. Instead, and I believe for the desire of temporary relief, the majority of this country (idiots and sheep) entrusted our government to solve economic problems. Government knows nothing about economics. Period. They only know what they're bribed to do. Relying on government to fix a real estate market is like taking your broken transmission to a dry cleaner. You can't fix an economy. They only thing you can do let the economy do what it must to fix itself (government needs to get out of the way). It's like the seasons. You can't disrupt nature. The only people the government bubble has helped were the large corporations and banks that lobbied for them.
 

Instigator

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Historically the average 30 yr mortgage rate is 9%. Rates above that have historically been during a recessionary period. Rates below that have historically been during an expanding economy. Remember that I said Historically. I surely don't feel that we are in an expanding economy by traditional standards right now. We are in uncharted territory right now so history may not have much bearing on the future at all.
With all of that being said I do know 1 thing for sure and that is this...
The value of ANY asset only matters twice. When you buy it and when you sell it. IF you can transfer your equity into another asset that has the long term potential to greater appreciation and you can cover the debt service under the worst possible circumstances that you can imagine then it makes for a sound gamble, if not then the gamble carries greater risk. Either way, when you acquire an asset banking on it's future value.....that is considered gambling. If you finance that acquisition, you have double downed on your gamble. Both are gambling yet one is ALL IN.
Now isn't that clear as MUD.:D
The easy part of gambling is knowing when to buy into the game, the hard part is knowing when to cash out.:p
 

Hammer

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My brother bought his house in 2010 for $500K and put it for sale a couple of weeks ago and had multiple offers the first day and they are in escrow at $800K. He just couldn't sit there and watch all that equity disappear when that next bubble pops and I don't blame him. When will the bubble pop? I'm not sure anyone knows.

In the meanwhile, he is going to rent a house and wait.

My gut says this.... But the baby due in December tells my brain get in a house for the long haul now and pay it down fast like Cole Trickle mentioned.
 

Hammer

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I agree with CT, but keep in mind it is a sliding scale if your plan is to upgrade to a larger house in a similar area. That next level of house is always going to be $50-$100k more (or whatever it is) if the market is up or down. So waiting a year or two might save you some taxes and fees, but who knows what intrest might be. Just focus on finding the right house if you are already "in".

Im waiting until the next downturn to strike on our final house though.

If we buy now we are not going "next level" unless we win the lotto. I would like to get a rental property in the future, right after this bubble bursts....
 

Hammer

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This ^^^

What's gonna happen is, when interest rates go back up, prices will come back down. So guess what? Your payment will be the same, except you'll be paying way more in interest! Buy while money is cheap. You're not an investor, you need a home, not a house. Find the best school district you can, and buy something there. The school district will be your guarantee, that you'll home will always appreciate.

Kids change everything. Let your life be about them now, and you'll never have any regrets! :thumbsup

School district is irrelevant. Kids go to school with mom...
 

rivermobster

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School district is irrelevant. Kids go to school with mom...
Not sure what you mean by that but...

Read my post once again. Especially the part about school districts and property values.

Being in a top notch school district makes all the difference in the world, for multiple different reasons. 😉
 

TCHB

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We have a friend that sold his San Clemente house about 4 years ago because he though the world was coming to a end. Now he is paying high rent and he is priced out of the market. My advice is to find a nice home and location you like. Settle in and enjoy your home. Prices will go up and down but in a short time your home is yours.
 

Hammer

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Not sure what you mean by that but...

Read my post once again. Especially the part about school districts and property values.

Being in a top notch school district makes all the difference in the world, for multiple different reasons. [emoji6]

Misread your post. [emoji1303]

I just was saying we have the opportunity to enroll our kids at the same school my wife teaches since she teaches there. Although I am learning a lot about how the education system works and I am beyond unimpressed. That is another thread altogether...
 

Englewood

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Well, we saw 30-40% last time around and in my opinion, 2007/2008 was nothing compared to what we are headed for.


Why is that? I disagree. The fundamentals are much different this time around. House prices are currently artificially inflated due to interest rates. The only way you will see a complete crash like 08 is if rates go up significantly. With government involvement, don't expect that to happen anytime soon.

Buy high, sell high or buy low, sell low. Very few time the market successfully. Even when timed correctly, any savings is often offset by rent.
 

rivermobster

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Misread your post. [emoji1303]

I just was saying we have the opportunity to enroll our kids at the same school my wife teaches since she teaches there. Although I am learning a lot about how the education system works and I am beyond unimpressed. That is another thread altogether...

Sounds like your wife will be calling the shots. Good luck Mike! lol

Just make sure you look at All of their home work, and tell your kids when what they are being taught is wrong!!! Public school district are the liberal breeding grounds. (no disrespect to your wife). :)
 

EmpirE231

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Property taxes are forever... if you buy high now, you're stuck with those higher taxes.

I consider this move as well, even though we are in our "forever house". but If I were to sell now, I would cash out and rent! not buy at the top of the market. Also relating to economics, a lot of people say if you are to expect high inflation, it is good to rack up the cheaper debt now (ex. people who paid 300k for a newport beach house in the late 90'S thought that was a major stretch, but they're all sitting pretty now) Who knows what's going to happen, but I agree w/ the general consensus, that we are in another bubble. I too believe that it will be worse than the last crash we had, primarily due to there being no other options for the governments to bail it out again... this would be big on a global scale.

loans are more qualified than before, so people have more "skin" in the game. But 3.5% is not that much skin in the game, all the foreign money is coming in because they view us as the safe haven for their money...because their economies are falling apart.... time will tell.
 

BHC Vic

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Not sure what you mean by that but...

Read my post once again. Especially the part about school districts and property values.

Being in a top notch school district makes all the difference in the world, for multiple different reasons. [emoji6]

100% truth. My religious views will have me paying for private school but the value a good district adds still counts
 
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