2023 recession?

[BingerFang]

A few large banks are predicting a recession in 2023. What are the RDP thoughts?

 

[RiverDave]

A few large banks are predicting a recession in 2023. What are the RDP thoughts?

I’m hoping we make it through 2022

 

[attitude]

All the radio real estate adds have turned from “sell your house now and get top dollar” to “sell your house immediately the bubble is about to pop.” Those adds always make me laugh because odds are that most people selling will need to buy another house.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2015
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2016
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2017
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2018
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2019
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2020
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2021
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2022 <---You are here.

They are finally right, we will be in a recession soon. Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs from store windows.

 

[attitude]

"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2015
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2016
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2017
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2018
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2019
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2020
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2021
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2022 <---You are here. They are finally right, we will be in a recession. Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs.

Replace financial melt down with Speed delivery and you get the same outcome. Sorry I had to

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

All the radio real estate adds have turned from “sell your house now and get top dollar” to “sell your house immediately the bubble is about to pop.” Those adds always make me laugh because odds are that most people selling will need to buy another house.

Its going to be interesting to see what the jump in rates will do to the RE markets.

 

[sintax]

I have faith they’ll find the right prop to get this economy running well

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

Replace financial melt down with Speed delivery and you get the same outcome. Sorry I had to

I have several more years of waiting then

 

[Havasu blue label]

Yes mr orange that’s why you took the money and ran

 

[DaveC]

"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2015
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2016
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2017
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2018
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2019
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2020
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2021
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2022 <---You are here.

They are finally right, we will be in a recession soon. Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs from store windows.

You just won’t be happy until there is a total financial meltdown, huh?

 

[attitude]

I have several more years of waiting then

And many more value increases lol

 

[Skinny Tire AH]

“We’ve predicted 17 of the last 2 recessions, correctly.” - RDP inmates.

 

[LargeOrangeFont]

You just won’t be happy until there is a total financial meltdown, huh?

I think it will just be a recession. There are too many headwinds.. I don't see how there wont be one. But total financial collapse? probably not.

 

[monkeyswrench]

A recession I would think is coming. For a while I was just hoping for a "correction", as others called it. Now though, too many things at play globally, both from covid and geopolitical stupidity by big players. Now, I'm hoping it's only a "recession"...

Global financial meltdown is scary shit. I don't have my assless chaps yet or my mohawk

 

[2Driver]

Well it’s the new media hype for sure.

The supply chain and labor shortage crap may never catch up unless we get a slow down. It will take months before the consumer burns through all its cash and people run up their credit cards to maintain lifestyle before you really feel the pinch.

Although, mortgage demand is down 40% this month from same time last year, so it’s begun. The Fed has done everything from a communication standpoint except slap people in the face that they are about to start major tightening.

 

[BHC Vic]

I’ve done everything I possibly could the last 5 years to prepare for this. Hopefully I’ve done enough

 

[HB2Havasu]

A Recession is defined by negative economic growth for 2 straight quarters or more. Personally I think there is still quite a bit of room for the economy to grow to get back to where it was prior to the Plandemic. If the Fed raises interest rates 7 times in the next 14 months that they have hinted at doing there will definitely be a Recession before the end of 2023. It's actually a good thing IMO. Inflation is getting out of hand and recession is one way for the economy to correct itself of this. However, it's not going to be a good thing for the Democratic Party going into a presidential election year in 2024 with the economy on the retreat. Independent voters usually vote conservatively when the economy is a Shit Show!!!

 

[RiverDave]

A recession I would think is coming. For a while I was just hoping for a "correction", as others called it. Now though, too many things at play globally, both from covid and geopolitical stupidity by big players. Now, I'm hoping it's only a "recession"...

Global financial meltdown is scary shit. I don't have my assless chaps yet or my mohawk

All chaps are assless

 

[RiverDave]

I’ve done everything I possibly could the last 5 years to prepare for this. Hopefully I’ve done enough

Do you have a decent supply of food on hand? What about gas masks?

I can help ya on both those fronts.

 

[DWC]

I’m hoping we make it through 2022

Was thinking the same.

 

[2Driver]

We had such a well-balanced, prosperous functioning economy for the first time in a long time under Trump.

Unfortunately, most of the good times have been false good times that end horribly, like the tech bubble, the financial crisis and now the stimulus/inflation-baffoons in office crisis

 

[Yldboyz]

I've saved all my money to see what things I can buy... Can't wait.

 

[Cdog]

Its going to be interesting to see what the jump in rates will do to the RE markets.

40 + % decrease in volume based on numbers released this morning. The news is typically 30 days behind the trend so expect much worse by June.

They tout no rise in unemployment yet. Mortgage business - "hold my beer, watch this".

 

[2Driver]

I've saved all my money to see what things I can buy... Can't wait.

Your sig video reminds me of a term that will be coming back soon - underwater.

 

[hallett21]

40 + % decrease in volume based on numbers released this morning. The news is typically 30 days behind the trend so expect much worse by June.

Meaning instead of 25 offers sellers are getting 15?

Inventory is still in the toilet and most of the homes for sale are paying sub 3.5% rates

 

[2Driver]

40 + % decrease in volume based on numbers released this morning. The news is typically 30 days behind the trend so expect much worse by June.

They tout no rise in unemployment yet. Mortgage business - "hold my beer, watch this".

I think a chunk of that is refI slow down which would make sense, who refis into a increasing rate environment after 30’s were 3%

 

[Cdog]

We had such a well-balanced, prosperous functioning economy for the first time in a long time under Trump.

Unfortunately, most of the good times have been false good times that end horribly, like the tech bubble, the financial crisis and now the stimulus/inflation-baffoons in office crisis

Crazy it took exactly 1 year and 3 months for the communists to wreak it. HAHA! I hope they enjoy their bug protein and public transportation

 

[Cdog]

Meaning instead of 25 offers sellers are getting 15?

Inventory is still in the toilet and most of the homes for sale are paying sub 3.5% rates

It's regional. The SE has tons of inventory in process where buyers not longer are contractually obligated to purchase due to the rising interest rates. A good friend of mine is the main HVAC supplier to the Hawaiian islands. Projects there are being mothballed as we speak.

It's not going to be worth it to sell unless you have to or you can pay cash for a while.

 

[Rajobigguy]

All chaps are assless

Yep if they aren’t assless they are just pants.

 

[monkeyswrench]

Do you have a decent supply of food on hand? What about gas masks?

I can help ya on both those fronts.

No chaps though?
What type of masks you got? Chem, bio...full face or respirator, spare cartridges?
Come on man, you're the consummate salesman! You have to give the complete lowdown on the product, then give the hook.

 

[77charger]

Imo gonna slow down. I don’t see the people paying these higher prices for long. The money is running out the bills are gonna be due.

Real estate may take a little dip for a bit like it has in years past but will be higher on the next comeback.

 

[c_land]

40 + % decrease in volume based on numbers released this morning. The news is typically 30 days behind the trend so expect much worse by June.

They tout no rise in unemployment yet. Mortgage business - "hold my beer, watch this".

It's transitory

 

[Cdog]

I think a chunk of that is refI slow down which would make sense, who refis into a increasing rate environment after 30’s were 3%

Several people I know. You'd be surprised. There is a whole new generation of cash out and vacation rental folks out there. One of my best friends was on a 7 yr arm. I set them up to refi in January. Wife is executive level in development. Most folks are not as close to the fire as some here.

 

[BHC Vic]

Do you have a decent supply of food on hand? What about gas masks?

I can help ya on both those fronts.

lol I don’t know why but I do have gas masks and lots of respirators. I have two freezers full of meat and I guess if push came to shove I have the 4 goats and 30 chickens. Chickens also give me at least a dozen eggs daily. Hopefully it would buy me some time to figure something out.

 

[Cdog]

Imo gonna slow down. I don’t see the people paying these higher prices for long. The money is running out the bills are gonna be due.

Real estate may take a little dip for a bit like it has in years past but will be higher on the next comeback.

"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up." - Barry Sorento

 

[RandyH]

I think another round of PPP money would fix everything - well at least until the Mid Terms are over.

 

[rivermobster]

A few large banks are predicting a recession in 2023. What are the RDP thoughts?

It's RD SUX, not RDP SUX.

Please make a note of it.

 

[2Driver]

Yeah I was thinking the VRBO/ rental crowd may be the place that takes us down. How many people with a VRBO/ rental could pay the mortgage if vacationers pull back. I say very few. 25% of sales in AZ were investment sales not owner occupied.

Its quite possible homes sold in the last year will go negative equity for a number of people. If VRBO/rental owners start to panic and begin dumping VRBO/ rentals it could get ugly fast. 2008 went crickets in a matter of months.

 

[BHC Vic]

Yeah I was think the VRBO crowd may be the place that takes us down. How many people with a VRBO could pay the mortgage if vacationers pull back. I Day very few. 25% of sale in AZ were investment sales not owner occupied.

Its quite possible homes sold in the last year will go negative equity for a number of people. If VRBO owners start to panic and begin dumping VRBOs it could get ugly fast. 2008 went crickets in a matter of months.

That’s been my thought for a while. I’ve said it a few times over the last year or two.

 

[Cdog]

It's transitory

If anyone has been paying attention they know better when these asshole's flap their holes.

biden is presidential = senile old fuck
hunter is the smartest man joe knows = crackhead
kamel toe kamala is black = well she's Indian and Jamaican
175 genders = xx & xy chromosomes
they can't control oil prices = pull permits to drill
invade countries over wmd = no wmd to be found
a mask made of underwear material is mandatory to save lives = they don't wear one LOL!
Everyone Caucasian is racist = racists see racism everywhere


The list could go on.....

 

[Done-it-again]

I hate to admit it..... But I'm starting to think that a recession is the only way to bring cost/wages back to normal.... I don't want to live through one again but everything is out of control.

 

[Cdog]

Yeah I was thinking the VRBO/ rental crowd may be the place that takes us down. How many people with a VRBO/ rental could pay the mortgage if vacationers pull back. I say very few. 25% of sales in AZ were investment sales not owner occupied.

Its quite possible homes sold in the last year will go negative equity for a number of people. If VRBO owners start to panic and begin dumping VRBOs it could get ugly fast. 2008 went crickets in a matter of months.

Remember for them it's just business. Think about it....

 

[shintoooo]

Sitting here doing tax returns and 2021 was a year of record profits and earnings for 90% of my clients. However, most of them are shocked at the amount of taxes they owe and probably 60-70% of them don't have the money to pay their taxes. Most are going on a payment plan.

The theme for 2021 was SPEND....SPEND.....SPEND.

 

[Singleton]

My gut says starting in July / August 2022 things are going to slow down. With interest rates rising, plus inflation still growing, shit will hit the fan for those living paycheck to paycheck. Thus an economic slowdown will start.
The Dems will play a game through the midterms to make things look better then they are. Once the republican’s are controlling the senate and house, reality will hit and it will be a hard 6-9 months, before things start turning around. will take time and veto overrides to get things heading in the right direction.

 

[2Driver]

Remember in 2007 when things dropped then settled on a shelf for a bit then went off a cliff

LOL Last month’s recovery may have been that shelf.

 

[Done-it-again]

Sitting here doing tax returns and 2021 was a year of record profits and earnings for 90% of my clients. However, most of them are shocked at the amount of taxes they owe and probably 60-70% of them don't have the money to pay their taxes. Most are going on a payment plan.

The theme for 2021 was SPEND....SPEND.....SPEND.

I think that is going to be the norm with the majority of people who typically received refunds..... All this money from the gov / working and boom, here is your taxes you owe.....

 

[Singleton]

Tons of ‘black hat’ worse case scenario folks on this site.
If enough people think / wish a recession is coming, it will come

 

[Ziggy]

Do you have a decent supply of food on hand? What about gas masks?

I can help ya on both those fronts.

Lol, did you ever get radiation suits to save us from the Fukushima disaster?
I honestly didn't take you as that much of a prepper or scaredy cat.
Your PR trip told me I was wrong. I do, however, appreciate your diligence on that front.
Not poking you, just verbalizing my somewhat surprised realization.

 

[2Driver]

5 more years of these 30% returns and Im retiring

I just bought a singlewide in Parker for $750k. Im repainting it white and relisting it next week for 1.4.

 

[OldSchoolBoats]

"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2015
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2016
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2017
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2018
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2019
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2020
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2021
"We are 18 months from a total financial meltdown." - RDP Financial Armageddonists Circa 2022 <---You are here.

They are finally right, we will be in a recession soon. Wake me when people start pulling down the Help Wanted signs from store windows.

I was starting to get worried since an economic doom and gloom thread hadn't been posted in a week. I got a shit ton of buyers ready and willing to pay over 5% on their mortgage rate, just can't get ANY of them into houses. In Temecula, the $500k - $600K purchase price crowd is pretty much screwed.